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Socialdemokrater har en fordel

Vind valget på velfærd

Ved efterårets valg vil mange vælgere efterspørge en klar velfærdsdagsorden. Socialdemokrater har en fordel hos vælgerne, når vi diskuterer velfærd – men din velfærdsdagsorden skal være troværdig.

Christian Made Hagelskjær
Christian Made Hagelskjær Partner

Ved kommunal- og regionsrådsvalget i 2013 herskede en krisebevidsthed, der medførte et stort fokus på vækst, beskæftigelse og økonomi.

Hvordan kunne man skabe nye arbejdspladser og samtidig holde skindet på næsen i ældreplejen uden at kommunens økonomi væltede omkuld – det var spørgsmålet, mange kommunalpolitikere forsøgte at svare på dengang.

Men i år bliver der meget større rum til at tale om velfærd.

I en analyse for Ugebrevet A4, foretaget omkring nytår, var vælgernes dom klar: Sundhed, flygtninge og social tryghed var de tre vigtigste politiske temaer i en landspolitisk kontekst.

Nu hvor arbejdsløsheden er lavere, så fylder velfærdstemaer naturligt nok mere for vælgerne. Særligt, når der er valg til kommuner og regioner, hvor barnebrude, Trump og skattekommissioner ikke stjæler dagsordenen.

Socialdemokratiet har et forspring

Her har socialdemokratiske velfærdselskende kandidater en fordel.

Fra analysen af folketingsvalget i 2015 ved vi, at Socialdemokratiet har et rimelig klart emneejerskab over velfærdstemaer. Det betyder, at en stor del af vælgerne først og fremmest tænker på Socialdemokratiet, hvis de skal vælge et parti, der kan bevare eller forbedre velfærden.

Allerede her har socialdemokratiske velfærdselskende kandidater altså en fordel.

Kommunale velfærdstemaer er særligt ældrepleje, daginstitutioner og folkeskolen, som er områder, de fleste mennesker har berøring med. Det er også handicapområdet, forhold for socialt udsatte, kultur og fritid mm. Men overordnet er velfærd et spørgsmål om, om man vil bruge penge på fælles goder eller ej.

Når jeg læser analysen fra kommunalvalget i 2013, så slår det mig, hvor meget lige nøjagtig det spørgsmål betyder for, om man vil stemme på Socialdemokratiet eller på Venstre.

Jo mere en vælger ønsker sig velfærd, desto mere er vælgeren tilbøjelig til at stemme S:

S-vælgere vil have velfærd. Sandsynligheden for at stemme på Socialdemokratiet stiger med 26 %, hvis man ønsker status quo i velfærden og den stiger med 41 %, hvis man ønsker bedre velfærd (og højere skat) sammenlignet med, hvis man ønsker lavere skat og mindre velfærd. For Venstre er sammenhængen lige modsat. Referencen er lavere skat og mindre service. Kilde: KV13 – analyser af kommunalvalget 2013, Syddansk Universitetsforlag 2017.

Det er måske indlysende, men det understreger alligevel en kæmpe grundlæggende forskel på de vælgere, de to traditionelle borgmesterpartier er gode til at tiltrække.

Overbevis med en velfærdsdagsorden

Nu, hvor emner som beskæftigelse og kommunens økonomi er trængt i baggrunden, er socialdemokrater på hjemmebane.

Hvis du er socialdemokrat, ja så vil vælgerne gerne høre dig tale om velfærd!

Vælgerne vil nok være mere tilbøjelige til at tro på, at du mener det, hvis du siger »bedre velfærd« end hvis Venstre-kandidaten siger det samme.

Er du parat til at hæve skatten?

Men overvej alligevel, om du er overbevisende. Mange politikere vil nemlig gerne tale om velfærd. Så hvad er det, der gør, at dit velfærdsbudskab er mere troværdigt?

Har du selv oplevet, at din gamle mor ikke blev passet ordentligt – og vil du nu gøre noget ved det?

Har du hidtil været garant for at folkeskolerne blev prioriteret i budgetterne?

Er du parat til at hæve skatten for at finansiere en bedre normering?

Lokale forskelle – men velfærd er vigtigt alle steder

Til efteråret er der valg i 98 kommuner og fem regioner. Vi kommer til at opleve 103 forskellige valgkampe, ikke én eller to, for hvert område har sine dagsordener og sine problemer at slås med.

I vores arbejde med at lægge strategi for valgkampe i flere danske kommuner ser vi naturligvis på de lokale temaer. Og der er forskel på, hvad vælgerne har fokus på i Struer og i Hillerød.

I udsatte kommuner betyder jobskabelse mere end i kommuner med fart på udviklingen, hvor trafikproblemer måske har høj prioritet. Folkeskolen kan have været højt prioriteret nogle steder og andre steder forfalder den.

Men i sidste ende er det vælgernes oplevelse af velfærden, der har betydning for, om de vil stemme på dig som velfærds-kandidat.

Her er det min personlige oplevelse, at velfærden trænger til et løft – og den oplevelse deler jeg med mange, som er klar til at stemme for mere velfærd.

Kilder: KV13 – analyser af kommunalvalget 2013, Syddansk Universitetsforlag (2017); Oprør fra udkanten – folketingsvalget 2015, Jurist- og Økonomforbundets Forlag (2017).

Christian Made Hagelskjær

Christian Made Hagelskjær

Startede Mærkesag sammen med Rasmus i 2015. Har mange år som aktivt involveret i samfundet bag sig, bl.a. i Socialdemokratiet, DSU, 3F og Røde Kors. I Mærkesag bruger han sin erfaring fra politiske kampagner og visuel kommunikation.

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